How significant is UK’s move to recognise Palestinian state, and why now?

Defence affairs analysis

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Tuesday announced that his country will recognise the state of Palestine by September, unless Israel takes “substantive steps” to end its war on Gaza and commit to a genuine peace process.

A government statement released following an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday said Starmer indicated the recognition could take place before the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York.

The United Kingdom’s decision comes days after Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said his country will recognise the state of Palestine.

Here is what we know about the announcement and its implications.

What did Starmer say?

Starmer’s announcement is being seen as a big change in British foreign policy.

“I’ve always said we will recognise a Palestinian state as a contribution to a proper peace process, at the moment of maximum impact for the two-state solution,” Starmer said.

“With that solution now under threat, this is the moment to act.”

He added: “So today, as part of this process towards peace, I can confirm that the UK will recognise the state of Palestine by the United Nations General Assembly in September, unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza.”

Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy, attending a UN conference in New York led by France and Saudi Arabia to promote the two-state solution, echoed the sentiment.

Lammy said it was “with the hand of history on our shoulders” that London planned to recognise Palestinian statehood, given Britain’s pivotal role in Israel’s creation through the 1917 Balfour Declaration.

Why now?

Responding to questions about the time of this decision, Starmer cited the “intolerable” conditions in Gaza and growing alarm over the weakening prospects for a two-state solution.

He said he wanted to ensure that the decision “plays a part in changing the conditions on the ground, making sure that aid gets in”.

“It’s done now because I am particularly concerned that the very idea of a two-state solution is reducing, and it feels further way today than it has for many years,” he said.

The announcement came after an emergency cabinet meeting, highlighting the growing political pressure from within his Labour Party.

The UK prime minister has been facing public pressure over Israel’s devastating war on Gaza, which experts and rights organisations have dubbed an act of genocide.

Israel has killed more than 60,000 Palestinians since it launched its offensive on October 7, 2023. Israel says its military onslaught was in response to the Hamas-led attacks that left at least 1,139 people dead in Israel, but rights groups have slammed its scorched earth tactics in Gaza.

Starmer emphasised that the recognition of Palestine has long been a part of Labour Party policy and forms a central pillar of a broader peace initiative that the government has been developing over time.

“As our election manifesto said, Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people. It is not in the gift of any neighbour and is also essential to the long-term security of Israel,” a statement issued by the prime minister’s office said.

“We are committed to recognising a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process which results in a two-state solution, with a safe and secure Israel alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state.”