(CHANCES OF PEACE), but land territorial exchange put negotiation in danger

Defence affairs - Def-Geopolitics

Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy have hailed “a visible chance for peace” in Ukraine – so long as Vladimir Putin takes steps to prove he is serious about ending the war when he meets Donald Trump in Alaska on Friday.

The British and Ukrainian leaders met in Downing Street for a private breakfast on Thursday to discuss the outcome of a video call between Zelenskyy, Trump and a group of European leaders including Starmer that took place on Wednesday.

Overall, Europeans had emerged from the video meeting reassured that Trump was going into his summit focused on extracting Putin’s commitment to a durable ceasefire and was not seeking to negotiate over Ukraine’s head.

The plan that Trump and Putin will hold a joint press conference after their talks suggests the White House is optimistic the summit will bring about a breakthrough. Moscow is determined that the summit should not just focus on Ukraine but also agree steps to restart US-Russian economic cooperation.

In a brief summary of the Downing Street meeting, British officials said Zelenskyy and Starmer expressed some cautious optimism about a truce “as long as Putin takes action to prove he is serious” about peace.

In a separate statement, Zelenskyy said there had been discussions about the security guarantees required to make any deal “truly durable if the United States succeeds in pressing Russia to stop the killing”.

Trump has said he will quickly seek to hold a second, trilateral summit involving himself, Putin and Zelenskyy if Putin agrees to this format in their bilateral in Alaska. Any such meeting would be a concession by Putin since he refuses to recognise Zelenskyy as a legitimate leader of Ukraine, but Zelenskyy needs to be ready in case in the next few days he suddenly finds himself in a negotiating room with Trump and Putin.

It would be at that meeting that Zelenskyy may be challenged with US calls to agree de facto to abandon territory currently held by Russia. Putin is also seeking agreement that Kyiv would hand over some land in parts of eastern Ukraine not seized by Russia. But Europe has said the starting point for any discussion about what would be in effect the partition of Ukraine has to start from the current line of contact.

On Wednesday Starmer co-chaired a virtual meeting of the “coalition of the willing” – a European-led effort to send a peacekeeping force to Ukraine to enforce any deal – where he said there was a “viable” chance of a truce.

On Thursday the prime minister gave Zelenskyy a bear hug in the street outside the door to No 10 in a symbol of continuing British solidarity with the Ukrainian cause. Similar public displays of solidarity followed the disastrous February meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, when the two leaders quarrelled in front of the cameras in the White House.

Zelenskyy in his statement urged the UK to join Nato’s prioritised Ukraine requirements list (Purl) initiative, to provide weapons to Kyiv. “It is important that within the framework of the coalition of the willing we should all be able to achieve effective formats for security cooperation,” he said.