SMALL CRACKS IN RUSSIAN & IRAN FRIENDSHIP ??

Defence affairs - Def-Geopolitics

The report came out amidst growing public skepticism in Iran, with some Iranians questioning the benefits of their country’s military partnership with Moscow and what exactly it is getting in return for its considerable support.

Russia’s Iranian-designed propeller-driven Shahed-136 one-way explosive-laden attack drones have repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s cities for just under three years straight. During that time, Russia has applied substantial modifications, changing the engines, warheads, and even the color of these drones. As a result, Iran’s leadership has reportedly come to regret aspects of the arrangement under which it provided Russia with its homegrown drones.

There are increasing signs that authorities in Tehran are feeling seller’s remorse since Moscow localized almost 90% of its Shahed production and made these more sophisticated versions with limited Iranian input, according to a CNN report published on Friday.

“From Russia’s unfulfilled promises to deliver defense systems like the S-400 and Su-35 fighter jets, to repeated delays in military cooperation, all suggest that this partnership is not based on mutual trust, but rather on opportunistic, short-term interests,” lamented an Aug. 5 editorial in Shargh, an Iranian reformist daily.

A Western intelligence official cited in CNN’s report similarly dubbed Russian cooperation with Iran as “purely transactional and utilitarian.”

Russia launched a record-breaking 6,129 attacks against Ukraine using Shahed drones this July, up from 5,337 attacks in June. On July 9 alone, Russia targeted Ukraine with 728 drones. Not content with these large-scale bombardments, Moscow aims to strike Ukraine with a single salvo of 2,000 Shahed drones!

Such enormous barrages are made possible by Russia’s localized production of Shahed-136s at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone over 600 miles east of Moscow. Iran permitted Russia to produce these drones as part of a $1.75 billion deal reached in early 2023.

As early as February 2023, Shahed debris uncovered in Ukraine contained multipurpose warheads suitable for attacks against larger infrastructure targets like the Ukrainian electricity grid. Later that year, Shaheds appeared with new black coatings, paint containing carbon that makes them more difficult for radar to detect. Most recently, much faster, high-flying jet-powered Shaheds are forcing Ukraine to expend its most advanced surface-to-air missiles.

Additionally, Russia is expanding its production facilities so that it can churn out even more modified Iranian-designed drones.

These developments, coupled with the lack of substantial support Iran received from Russia during its 12-day war against Israel in June, have frustrated many Iranians.

“Iran may have expected Russia to do more or take more steps without being required to do so,” Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst for the Tehran-based Center for Strategic Studies, told CNN. “They may not intervene militarily, but they may beef operative support, in terms of weapons shipments, technological support, intelligence sharing, or things like that.

Iran officially denies it sold Russia any military drones since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022, admitting only to selling Moscow some drones before the war. In reality, Tehran delivered several Shaheds via sea and air and supplied Russia with extensive technology transfers since early in the war. The 2023 contract initially envisaged the production of 6,000 Shaheds at Alabuga by September 2025, which Russia completed well ahead of schedule. The scale of its localized drone production exceeded initial expectations and also significantly lowered the per-unit cost of these drones for Moscow.

What Iran is getting in return for this valuable assistance is far from clear. Reports of Shahed-136 transfers in 2022 led to speculation that Iran would receive the Su-35 Flanker fighter jets it had ordered before the war, possibly as part of a barter arrangement. Many expected that a batch of two dozen factory-fresh Flankers Moscow had initially built for Egypt would now go to Iran. However, Russia recently delivered some of them to Algeria, suggesting that’s not the case, or that Iran will ultimately receive even fewer than 24. Iranian journalist Saeed Azimi reported in 2023 that Tehran had ordered and paid for 50 Su-35s by 2021 but never received a single one. To date, Russia has only delivered Iran a small number of subsonic Yak-130 jet trainers.

A report released by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in May 2025 revealed that Russia has paid Iran in gold bars in return for its assistance in building this enormous new drone industry. The report uncovered at least $104 million worth of gold bars delivered as part of a contract between Alabuga and the Tehran-based company Sahara Thunder. Interestingly, CNN’s Friday report mentions that Sahara Thunder has complained about payments not being made.