Last nuclear treaty between US and Russia nears expiration

Defence affairs ~ Kylie Atwood

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have spent weeks trading threats to restart nuclear tests, an escalation kicked off by Putin’s boasts about tests of the Poseidon nuclear powered missile in late October.

Days later Trump declared that he had ordered the first US nuclear test in three decades.

The leaders’ provocative public statements, including a Russian reply that it too would explore restarting nuclear weapons testing, have raised global concerns about a new nuclear arms race. Behind the scenes, both sides are also eyeing a critical upcoming deadline: February 4, when the singular remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the nations is set to expire.

The New START treaty limits both countries to a maximum of 1,550 deployed long-range nuclear warheads on delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers. After a five-year extension signed by President Joe Biden, the treaty is set to expire early next year with little indication of momentum towards a new agreement.

Trump’s National Security Council called a meeting with nuclear weapons experts during the lead-up to summit between Trump and Putin in August, according to four sources familiar with the meeting.

The wide-ranging discussion included the potential benefits of extending the current cap on deployed nuclear weapons that the US and Russia have agreed to, whether or not to expand the size of the US nuclear arsenal and the status of the US nuclear triad, the sources said.

The White House wanted to be prepared for any possible nuclear discussion between the two leaders of the world’s greatest nuclear arsenals.

But the leaders’ meeting ended without momentum towards ending the Ukraine War or the announcement of any nuclear weapons agreement.

When Putin publicly proposed an extension of the single lasting nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia weeks later Trump responded positively.

“It sounds like a good idea to me,” Trump said.

Still, more than a month later, neither side says ongoing talks to achieve that goal are ongoing.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday there are conversations about “potentially” speaking to Russia about the treaty.

Russia suspended participation in a critical monitoring mechanism in the treaty in 2023, though it was already essentially paused due to Russia’s refusal to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities. Those inspections were paused during the COVID-19 pandemic but never resumed after the pandemic ended largely because of US opposition over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Still, both sides appear to have maintained adherence to the treaty’s cap on strategic nuclear weapons.

Questions over whether or not those caps will remain in place come as the Russians are testing new nuclear systems – though there are no reports of warhead testing — and the Chinese are rapidly developing and expanding their nuclear and ballistic arsenal.