what made Donald trump think twice about Iran's military

Defence affairs - Def-Geopolitics

By the weekend, however, the tone in Washington had changed significantly. Mr Trump’s missiles had not materialised. Something had caused the president to blink. That something, in part, lies inside Iran, where the regime is now looking stronger than at any time since the protests began.

Pro-regime rallies have filled the streets of Tehran and the security services appear to have taken back control. Iran has also started to bristle militarily.

“We are at the peak of our readiness,” an elite Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) commander said, claiming their stockpile of rockets had increased since the 12-day conflict last summer.

Despite the war last year, Iran retains enough military prowess to trouble its foes in the region, which are still waiting for US reinforcements to arrive.

Among the most concerning is the significant stock of short-range missiles capable of hitting US military assets in Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia.

An Iran backed into a corner could also use them against energy infrastructure in the Gulf, as it has before in the case of Saudi Arabia.

Reliable estimates are difficult to confirm, but the best guess is that Iran has about 1,750 shorter-range ballistic missiles at its disposal, such as the Fateh-110 and 313s, the Zolfaghar and the Qiam-1.

The US, meanwhile, has a number of Patriot anti-aircraft batteries in the Middle East, but these are designed for the “terminal” phase of a rocket’s trajectory, when they are getting close to target.

In order to thin out the salvos earlier in their trajectory, America would prefer to have more naval destroyers and fighter jets in the region.

It is not surprising, therefore, that leaders of the Gulf states have been urging Mr Trump to hold back.

“They wouldn’t be sad to see Iran taken down a couple of pegs, but they would rather live with a weak Iran than the risk of a large round of retaliation,” said Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute think tank.

These Arab leaders are, to varying degrees, crucial to the success of Mr Trump’s Gaza peace process, meaning their concerns on other matters are likely at least to get a hearing.

Which leads to Israel.

The Jewish state has been noticeably restrained in its public rhetoric against Iran over the past week.

It now emerges that, in common with Arab leaders, Benjamin Netanyahu has urged his great ally not to strike at this time.

Iran is believed to have used only about half of its medium-range ballistic missiles in the 12-day war against Israel last June, and the best estimates put its remaining arsenal at about 1,500, (although the number of launchers it has available is open to question).