US THAAD Stocks Are Dwindling: Interceptor Crisis Could Change the Course of the Iran War

Defence affairs - Def-Geopolitics

The RUSI report reveals that the US-Israeli missile defense campaign is now entering its most critical logistical phase, as the depletion of Arrow and THAAD stocks begins to threaten the strategic viability of the war against Iran.

The escalating missile defense campaign involving a combination of US and Israeli systems against Iran is now entering a logistical phase that could potentially determine the course of the war as interceptor inventories approach critical depletion levels after just weeks of sustained high-intensity combat operations.

A detailed assessment released by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) shows that Israel's Arrow ballistic interceptor missiles could run out within days, while the United States faces similar pressure on its THAAD interceptor inventory if the current operational tempo continues without a reduction in deployment rates.

The analysis, combined with diplomatic signals emerging from Washington regarding a possible negotiated solution to the Iran conflict, suggests that the resilience of the defense industry and ammunition production capacity are now increasingly influencing strategic decisions as much as developments on the battlefield.

The Royal United Services Institute assessment titled “Over 11,000 Munitions in 16 Days of Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Determines Endurance” portrays the conflict as not just a clash of military operations, but a test of the coalition’s ability to maintain a high-tech interceptor inventory during a period of high-intensity warfare.

According to the report, Israel's Arrow interceptor missile inventory is now approaching a critical depletion level after a high rate of launches was used to repel Iranian ballistic missile attacks and waves of drones that have been launched continuously since the early phases of the conflict.

The think tank estimates that at the current pace of operations, Israel is likely to exhaust its entire stock of Arrow interceptors by the end of March, putting the country just days away from losing its primary exosphere missile defense capability.

This conclusion reflects the very high rate of interceptor deployment to repel Iranian attacks which averaged about 33 ballistic missiles and nearly 94 drones per day after the initial escalation period of the conflict.

The study also noted that operational pressures are increasing as several radar systems experience damage or degradation, forcing air defense units to deploy more interceptors per threat to maintain the probability of interception at an acceptable level.