UAE, Saudi Arabia Take Big Gamble by Flying Drones against Iran

Defence affairs - Def-Geopolitics

The direct involvement of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in the military aggression of the US and Israeli regime against Iran, given the high vulnerability of those two Arab countries, is considered a high-risk decision.

two American drones were shot down over Iran’s Fars Province, including an MQ-9 Reaper drone. However, images released in the following hours, particularly at night, as well as expert analyses, suggest that it is likely that only one of these drones was a Reaper.

Based on these assessments, the second drone appears to be a Chinese-made Wing Loong; a drone with features similar to Iran's Shahed-129, including high endurance and the capability to conduct reconnaissance and combat missions. This type of drone is in the possession of a number of regional countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

If this hypothesis is correct, it means that one of these two countries has entered Iranian airspace with its drone. This could be a sign of an increase in the level of conflict and the indirect involvement of Persian Gulf Arab countries in the war; countries that have previously provided their bases and infrastructure openly or covertly to the US.

In this context, it can be argued that a number of these regional actors not only support US operations against Iran but are also escalating tensions. This situation could potentially expand the range of Iran's responses and put new targets—such as Saudi and especially Emirati infrastructure—at risk.

The more direct involvement of these countries in the field, considering their high economic and infrastructural vulnerabilities, is viewed as a high-risk decision. The experience from the Yemen war has also shown that these actors face serious limitations when confronted with asymmetric threats. On the other hand, there is also the possibility that part of this involvement has occurred under pressure or within the framework of US strategic imperatives; especially at a time when Washington has repeatedly emphasized the need for its regional allies to "bear the costs."

Based on the analysis of the wreckage recovered and expert assessments, the following probability has been raised:

The MQ-9 Reaper may have been targeted using the Day-9 air defense system; and the Wing Loong drone might have been shot down by the Majid air defense system.

If these assessments are accurate, this incident could be considered the first recorded case of a successful shootdown with the Day-9 system in this war; a matter that has significant technical and operational importance.