‘We lose the midterms’: Republicans worry Iran might have already cost them Congress

Defence affairs - Def-Geopolitics

Republicans are relieved over Trump’s steps toward reconciliation in Iran — but they worry the measures are too little, too late to save them from a brutal midterm election cycle.

Behind the public celebration by many Republicans of the temporary two-week ceasefire announcement, longtime party operatives continue to warn of a bleak political reality as the cost-of-living concerns around the war including spiking gas prices that are likely to continue for weeks if not longer even if the fragile ceasefire holds.

A person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly, put it bluntly.

“This war in Iran almost cements the fact that we lose the midterms in November — the Senate and House,” the person said.

The concerns are compounded by Republicans’ underperformances in a spate of recent elections, fueling fears that voters, concerned about pocketbook issues, are eager for change. The war, even if it ends now, will likely have lingering effects on gas and other commodity prices that Republicans will be forced to defend on the trail, as much as they might try to talk about tax cuts or border security.

“We will not turn on the proverbial dime to right this course,” said Barrett Marson, a longtime GOP strategist in Arizona. “Time is not on the president’s side when it comes to the November election.”

Trump and his top advisers have spent much of the last few months arguing that the country was on the verge of an economic turnaround — one that would become evident as policies from the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill started to fully take effect.

Instead, the Iran war has put the president and his allies on the defensive, overshadowing their economic messaging while worsening many voters’ actual economic realities. Iran has used the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of global oil flows, as leverage over the U.S. in the war, sending gas prices spiking across the country.

White House aides pointed to declines in oil and natural gas prices and rebounds in the stock market following Trump’s ceasefire announcement as proof that the president’s promises are coming true. They also argue that the benefits of his economic policies — including tax cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill — have yet to be fully felt by voters.

“As energy markets begin to stabilize, historic tax refund checks hit the mail, and the rest of the Trump administration’s pro-growth agenda continues taking effect, Americans can rest assured that the best is yet to come,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement.